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武器装备备件需求预测 
定 价：98 元 丛书名：高等学校计算机基础教育教材精选
适用读者:本书可作为武器装备备件订货决策、储存保管、供应管理人员以及装备维修保障人员的实用参考书籍和培训教材，也可供工业部门研究人员、保障性工程师以及高等院校装备综合保障、维修保障等专业的教员和学员阅读。 本书可作为武器装备备件订货决策、储存保管、供应管理人员以及装备维修保障人员的实用参考书籍和培训教材，也可供工业部门研究人员、保障性工程师以及高等院校装备综合保障、维修保障等专业的教员和学员阅读。
9 7 3 8 1 7 7 1 5 2 3 1 8 
本书着重介绍了武器装备备件的基本概念、需求影响因素、需求预测的程序及武器装备备件保障决策时常用的需求预测方法，主要包括基于相似分析法、模糊综合评判法、灰色评估法的备件品种确定方法，基于仿真、时间序列、灰色模型、支持向量机、故障分析、组合模型的备件需求预测方法。
赵建忠，男，1978年出生，山东聊城人，中校军衔，技术9级，现任海军航空大学教员。2002年毕业于山东理工大学，本科毕业后分配至海军航空兵部队工作，2006年考入海军航空工程学院攻读硕士、博士研究生，2013年调入海军航空工程学院工作。近5年，主持科研项目5项，获军队科技进步二、三奖各1项，以第一作者发表学术研究论文50余篇，SCI检索1篇，EI检索12篇，连续4年被学校评为"学术先进个人”。
第1 章 概述 ·················································································· 1
1.1 基本概念 ··········································································· 1
1.2 备件分类 ··········································································· 3
1.2.1 常见的备件分类方法 ···················································· 3
1.2.2 低消耗备件 ································································ 4
1.2.3 基于模糊隶属度的低消耗备件定义与界定 ························· 4
1.3 备件需求影响因素分析 ······················································· 10
1.3.1 备件需求内在影响因素分析 ········································· 11
1.3.2 备件需求外在影响因素分析 ········································· 12
1.3.3 影响因素的量化及规范化处理 ······································ 16
1.3.4 基于粗糙集属性约简的主要影响因素确定 ······················· 20
1.4 备件需求层次性分析 ·························································· 22
1.4.1 备件层次需求分析 ····················································· 22
1.4.2 装备系统层次需求分析 ··············································· 23
1.4.3 维修保障组织需求分析 ··············································· 23
1.5 备件需求特点分析 ····························································· 23
1.5.1 备件需求特征 ··························································· 23
1.5.2 常消耗备件需求特点 ·················································· 24
1.5.3 低消耗备件需求特点 ·················································· 25
第2 章 武器装备备件需求预测与配置优化基础 ··································· 26
2.1 备件消耗模式分析 ····························································· 26
2.2 备件需求预测的基本原则 ···················································· 27
2.3 备件需求预测的一般程序 ···················································· 29
2.4 备件需求预测的方法 ·························································· 31
2.4.1 定性备件需求预测方法 ··············································· 31
2.4.2 定量备件需求预测方法 ··············································· 32
2.4.3 模型复杂性与模型选择 ··············································· 34
第3 章 武器装备备件品种确定方法 ·················································· 36
3.1 概述 ··············································································· 36
3.2 基于相似分析法的武器装备备件品种确定方法 ·························· 42
3.2.1 相似分析法简介 ························································ 42
3.2.2 实例分析 ································································· 44
3.3 基于模糊层次综合评判的备件品种确定方法 ····························· 46
3.3.1 模糊层次综合评判法简介 ············································ 46
3.3.2 模型建立 ································································· 47
3.3.3 示例分析 ································································· 50
3.4 基于D-S 理论和模糊综合评判的备件品种确定方法 ··················· 52
3.4.1 模型建立 ································································· 52
3.4.2 实现步骤 ································································· 54
3.4.3 示例分析 ································································· 57
3.5 基于灰色评估法的武器装备备件品种确定方法 ·························· 61
3.5.1 评价指标体系的建立 ·················································· 61
3.5.2 评价模型的建立 ························································ 63
3.5.3 示例分析 ································································· 65
第4 章 基于寿命分布和仿真的武器装备备件需求预测方法 ···················· 69
4.1 基于寿命分布的武器装备备件需求预测方法 ····························· 69
4.1.1 模型的假设 ······························································ 70
4.1.2 模型的建立 ······························································ 70
4.1.3 示例分析 ································································· 74
4.2 基于蒙特卡罗仿真的备件需求预测方法 ·································· 77
4.2.1 模型的假设 ······························································ 78
4.2.2 参数确定 ································································· 78
4.2.3 蒙特卡罗方法 ··························································· 79
4.2.4 仿真模型的建立 ························································ 79
4.2.5 实例分析 ································································· 81
4.3 基于马尔可夫与蒙特卡罗仿真的备件需求预测方法 ···················· 82
4.3.1 马尔可夫预测模型 ····················································· 82
4.3.2 备件消耗的马尔可夫性分析 ········································· 84
4.3.3 基于马尔可夫与蒙特卡罗仿真预测模型的建立 ················· 85
4.3.4 实例分析 ································································· 88
4.4 基于Logistic 回归和马尔可夫过程的备件需求 预测仿真模型 ······· 89
4.4.1 模型建立 ································································· 90
4.4.2 需求发生概率预测 ····················································· 91
4.4.3 需求数量预测 ··························································· 93
4.4.4 误差分析 ································································· 96
4.4.5 示例分析 ································································· 97
4.5 考虑设备停机的备件需求预测仿真模型 ································· 100
4.5.1 基于最大熵原理与概率加权矩的备件寿命分布确定 ·········· 101
4.5.2 基于保障度的间断工作备件需求预测模型建立 ················ 106
4.5.3 仿真思路及流程规划 ················································· 109
4.5.4 示例分析 ································································ 111
第5 章 基于时间序列和回归分析的武器装备备件需求预测方法 ············· 115
5.1 时间序列法概述 ······························································· 115
5.2 基于时间序列法的备件需求预测 ·········································· 116
5.2.1 算数平均预测法 ······················································· 116
5.2.2 移动平均预测法 ······················································· 117
5.2.3 指数平滑预测法 ······················································· 118
5.2.4 示例分析 ································································ 122
5.3 基于回归分析的备件需求预测方法 ······································· 126
5.3.1 线性回归概述 ·························································· 126
5.3.2 一元线性回归模型 ···················································· 127
5.3.3 多元线性回归模型 ···················································· 129
5.3.4 示例分析 ································································ 131
第6 章 基于灰色模型的武器装备备件需求预测方法 ···························· 133
6.1 灰色预测方法概述 ···························································· 133
6.1.1 灰色系统简介 ·························································· 133
6.1.2 灰色系统理论基础 ···················································· 134
6.1.3 灰色预测方法 ·························································· 136
6.2 基于一般序列GM(1,1)模型的备件需求预测方法 ······················ 137
6.2.1 模型建立 ································································ 137
6.2.2 示例分析 ································································ 141
6.3 基于含有空缺值序列GM（1,1）模型的备件需求预测方法 ········· 144
6.3.1 模型建立 ································································ 144
6.3.2 示例分析 ································································ 145
6.4 基于加入影响因子改进灰色模型的备件需求预测方法 ················ 146
6.4.1 改进灰色预测模型的建立 ··········································· 146
6.4.2 示例分析 ································································ 147
6.5 基于灰色-马尔可夫模型的备件需求预测方法 ··························· 155
6.5.1 经典灰色-马尔可夫预测模型 ······································· 155
6.5.2 改进的灰色-马尔可夫模型 ·········································· 158
6.5.3 示例分析 ································································ 162
第7 章 基于人工智能的武器装备备件需求预测方法 ···························· 166
7.1 基于BP 神经网络的备件需求预测方法 ·································· 166
7.1.1 BP 神经网络基本原理 ··············································· 167
7.1.2 预测模型的建立 ······················································· 169
7.1.3 示例分析 ································································ 170
7.2 基于支持向量机（SVM）的备件需求预测方法 ························ 175
7.2.1 支持向量机概述 ······················································· 176
7.2.2 支持向量机预测原理 ················································· 177
7.2.3 支持向量机预测模型 ················································· 185
7.2.4 示例分析 ································································ 188
7.3 基于复杂时间序列的组合相关向量机备件需求预测方法 ············· 192
7.3.1 相空间重构 ····························································· 192
7.3.2 小波变换基本理论 ···················································· 193
7.3.3 小波函数的选取 ······················································· 198
7.3.4 基于组合相关向量机的预测原理 ································ 199
7.3.5 示例分析 ································································ 206
第8 章 基于故障分析的武器装备备件需求预测方法 ···························· 213
8.1 故障预测的基本原理分析 ··················································· 213
8.2 基于故障预测的备件需求预测系统构建 ································· 215
8.2.1 工作流程 ································································ 216
8.2.2 数据预处理 ····························································· 216
8.2.3 故障预测 ································································ 219
8.2.4 备件需求确定 ·························································· 220
8.3 基于信息融合和IMUGM(1,1)故障预测的备件需求预测方法 ········ 220
8.3.1 问题描述 ································································ 221
8.3.2 IMUGM(1,1)模型的建立 ············································ 221
8.3.3 基于信息融合和IMUGM(1,1)故障预测的备件需求
预测模型构建 ·························································· 224
8.3.4 示例分析 ································································ 225
8.4 基于信息融合和IMUGM(1,m,w)故障预测的备件需求预测建模 ···· 230
8.4.1 问题描述 ································································ 231
8.4.2 IMUGM(1,m,w)模型的建立 ········································· 231
8.4.3 基于信息融合和IMUGM(1,m,w)故障预测的备件需求
预测模型构建 ·························································· 234
8.4.4 示例分析 ································································ 234
8.5 基于故障规律的备件需求预测方法 ······································· 239
8.5.1 备件需求量计算公式 ················································· 239
8.5.2 示例分析 ································································ 242
第9 章 基于组合模型的武器装备备件需求预测方法 ···························· 244
9.1 组合预测方法概述 ···························································· 244
9.1.1 一般组合预测模型 ···················································· 245
9.1.2 最优加权系数的确定 ················································· 246
9.1.3 模型的检验 ····························································· 247
9.2 基于回归分析和灰色模型的备件需求预测方法 ························· 247
9.2.1 单个预测模型建立 ···················································· 247
9.2.2 最优组合预测模型 ···················································· 248
9.2.3 示例分析 ································································ 248
9.3 基于小波变换的备件需求预测方法 ······································· 251
9.3.1 小波变换理论 ·························································· 251
9.3.2 GM(1,1)-ARMA 模型的改进 ········································ 254
9.3.3 WGM -ARMA 模型的构建 ·········································· 264
9.3.4 示例分析 ································································ 265
9.4 基于改进Theil 不等系数的备件需求预测建模 ·························· 270
9.4.1 单项预测模型的建立 ················································· 271
9.4.2 基于Theil 不等系数的IOWHA 算子的组合预测模型构建 ··· 275
9.4.3 基于Theil 不等系数的IOWHA 算子的组合预测模型改进 ··· 278
9.4.4 示例分析 ································································ 282
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